High-priced listings in Gangnam are bound to flood the market

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With this tax reform, the special deduction for long-term holding will be reduced to a maximum of 1 billion KRW.
If you sell in '28, the maximum is 2 billion KRW, but from '29 onwards, it becomes 1 billion KRW.
For those currently sitting on several billion KRW in capital gains, they absolutely must sell by next year. This is an absolute premise.
Hold out?
After getting hit by Comprehensive Real Estate Tax and holding taxes, and then losing half to taxes when you eventually sell?
Even if you hold it for a lifetime and gift it later, half will still be taken in taxes?
A rational consumer would find it undeniably more profitable to sell by next year.
For example, if you bought an apartment in Apgujeong for 2 billion KRW in the 2010s and it is currently worth about 7 billion KRW,
your capital gain is 5 billion KRW.
If you sell this year or by next year, you only need to pay about 400–500 million KRW in taxes.
But if you sell after 2029? You will likely have to pay around 2 billion KRW.
You have no choice but to sell.
But does that mean selling next year? No. All long-term holders are in the exact same situation right now.
The one who sells even a day earlier wins. They can get a slightly higher price.
With so many people stacked up who need to sell within a set timeframe, there is no way prices will rise.
Therefore, by the end of this year, there will be a competition to lower asking prices just to get a sale. Until when?
Until a buyer appears.
But the buyer must possess billions in cash, and with such a massive pile of listings that need to be sold and a high probability of falling prices ahead,
even if someone has the cash, who would readily jump in to invest? They'll think, "If I wait a year, it'll probably be even cheaper."
The buyer-seller game has turned into a complete buyer's market.
Until the end of the year, there will be a race to lower asking prices without actual transactions occurring,
and eventually, whatever price a transaction does occur at will become the benchmark, setting the standard for lower-tier apartments below it.
Then, prices will continue to adjust downward in a chain reaction.