I've been reading the Records of the Grand Historian lately, and it seems there are lessons to be learned from history
The conclusion is that Taiwan is ultimately bound to fall because of China.
In the Records of the Grand Historian, there are Zhang Yi, Su Qin, and Fan Sui;
all three were extraordinary figures who rose to the position of Prime Minister of a nation.
Zhang Yi was a proponent of the "Vertical Alliance" strategy (Yanheng). In other words, his idea was not to oppose strong nations, but to expand territory by invading nations weaker than oneself.
Su Qin was the opposite, a proponent of the "Horizontal Alliance" strategy (Hezhong). His idea was that all nations except for the Qin state should form an alliance to resist Qin.
Ultimately, the Yanheng strategy won, and history shows that Qin unified the lands.
If we try to draw a lesson from history here, it seems that if Taiwan is abandoned, Korea and Japan will likely regain peace.
The reason the Hezhong strategy also failed was that the level of urgency differed for each nation. For the Three Jins (Han, Zhao, and Wei), Qin was a very realistic threat, but for the distant Qi (Shandong region), it was like watching a fire from across a river.
Therefore, I thought that Taiwan would inevitably fall.
Fan Sui is the well-known creator of the "Distancing Allies and Approaching the Enemy" strategy (Yuanjiao Jingu). Comparing this to current history, it seems they will strike Taiwan and Okinawa first, then Korea, and then the Japanese mainland. That seems much more advantageous for them.
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