Driven by AI-led Memory Boom, DRAM Value Surpasses TSMC's Advanced Processes

Kernel Insight: "1b DRAM value at $0.65 per mm² exceeds TSMC 2nm." As DRAM prices continue their record-breaking streak due to the surge in memory demand driven by the Artificial Intelligence (AI) craze, an analysis has revealed that the value of memory chips per unit area has even surpassed the price of TSMC's most advanced computing wafers.
According to semiconductor analysis firm Kernel Insight on the 24th, the revenue value per unit area generated by DRAM based on the latest processes was found to exceed the wafer prices of TSMC's N2 (2nm) and N3 (3nm) processes.
Kernel Insight estimated the price of a 300mm wafer processed with TSMC's N3 process at $20,000 and an N2 process wafer at $30,000. When converted to area, the nominal price per mm² is approximately $0.283 and $0.424, respectively. This calculation is based on unofficial industry estimates and does not reflect wafer edge loss, dicing loss, yield, or defects that occur during actual chip production.
In contrast, the value per unit area of DRAM was calculated based on density. Kernel Insight set the DRAM price at $1.50 per gigabit (Gb) and applied bit density by generation. The results showed that 1y DRAM, with a density of 0.219Gb/mm², is $0.329 per mm², and 1z DRAM, with a density of 0.273Gb/mm², is $0.410 per mm². In the case of the latest 1b DRAM, which has a density of 0.436Gb/mm², the value reaches $0.654 per mm², exceeding the price of a TSMC N2 wafer by more than 50%. In 10nm-class DRAM processes, 1y, 1z, 1a, and 1b represent increasingly finer processes.
The $1.50 per Gb assumed by Kernel Insight aligns with recent DDR5 spot price trends. According to market research firm DRAM Exchange, as of the 21st, the average transaction price for a 16Gb DDR5 eTT chip was $24.80, which is approximately $1.55 per Gb.
Considering that the production cost of DDR5 memory is lower than TSMC's advanced logic processes, the profitability per wafer for memory manufacturers has soared to unprecedented levels.
However, there are structural limitations to this comparison. While TSMC's figures represent the wafer processing price received from customers, the DRAM figures represent the total revenue potential a manufacturer can earn by selling finished memory products.
Furthermore, advanced packaging costs essential for logic chip manufacturing are excluded, and TSMC's actual wafer supply prices vary significantly depending on order volume and contract terms for each customer. Similarly, the DRAM metric is based on spot prices, which are traded in small, sporadic quantities, and thus differs from the long-term fixed contract prices that account for the majority of revenue for major suppliers such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron.
Market experts believe that since undisclosed fixed DRAM contract prices have been strong recently, they likely haven't negatively impacted spot prices. Consequently, the price per wafer for memory companies may even surpass TSMC by a larger margin.
Driven by AI-led Memory Boom, DRAM Value Surpasses TSMC's Advanced Processes n.news.naver.com As DRAM prices continue their record-breaking streak due to the surge in memory demand driven by the Artificial Intelligence (AI) craze, an analysis has revealed that the value of memory chips per unit area has even surpassed the price of TSMC's most advanced computing wafers. On the 24th, semiconductor