Saying there is a shortage of real estate supply sounds like nonsense.
In the early 90s, after the development of the first generation of new towns, areas like Bundang and Ilsan expanded two to three times their size by developing surrounding regions, and entirely new planned districts like Sangam were created. There are also quite a few places where redevelopment in areas like Nowon, Seongdong, and Yeongdeungpo has increased the number of households by thousands compared to previous levels.
Since the number of newly added households alone exceeds hundreds of thousands, it was more than enough to handle the population flocking to Seoul. Because of this, there was a widespread perception that real estate as an investment tool was dead, as evidenced by the fact that only a handful of places proceeded immediately even when Lee Myung-bak launched the New Town project.
This period lasted from 2007 to 2013, during which real estate values plummeted. However, as income levels rose and the limits of handling the continuous influx of people into the metropolitan area were reached starting in 2014, real estate prices began an upward trend. Even then, the starting point of the rental crisis was a real estate market that was way too stable. The news was filled with stories about the "Jeonse" (lump-sum deposit lease) crisis, and it wasn't until the second half of the year that Jeonse prices began pushing up home prices. By the time the Moon Jae-in administration took office, already highly valued areas had risen by 20%, while other areas had risen by as much as 50%.
Up to this point, this was a perfectly common-sense phenomenon. For a long time, real estate had provided less than even a fraction of the inflation hedging one might expect, and it was easy for dual-income newlyweds to buy homes in Ilsan or Sanbon within reasonable loan limits.
However, the Moon administration's definition of this as "a rapid surge in housing prices created by speculators, centered around multi-homeowners" was a massive misjudgment. By promoting the idea of "one smart home," they caused even wealthy people from provincial areas to flock to the metropolitan area. Now, we have entered an era of population decline, and the population that could migrate from the provinces is hitting rock bottom, yet housing in the metropolitan area has become as scarce as it was during the era of rapid economic growth.
Is this really happening because of a shortage of supply...? lol
Because of the abnormal phenomena created by regulations, only the minimum amount of supply was provided according to the trends of the times. This turned a situation that would have been fine into a cutthroat competition in the metropolitan area, making it look like there is a shortage of supply.
If they move the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries and HMM to Busan, or build new semiconductor plants in Jeolla-do just one more time, I don't think there will be a shortage of supply in the metropolitan area. If they would just stop the behavior of imposing all sorts of regulations that create a phenomenon where even when supply exists, listings are locked up—all under a frame that ignores market logic by forcing people to own "one smart home" by cracking down on multi-homeowners—I don't think the metropolitan area would suffer from a supply shortage... It's frustrating.
Comments 0