Question regarding stocks or crypto

I'm thinking of entering a certain stock/coin that is currently rising, but I'm worried it might go up even more.
However, a YouTuber said that right now is a position where you have to be prepared to get stuck with a 20-30% loss.
In this case, based on your experience, which is more likely:
1. It's highly probable it will keep rising without me getting stuck
2. It's highly probable I'll end up stuck by 20-30% as they said
Which one happens more often?