The government will eventually stabilize housing prices.

By tightening existing mortgage loans for existing homes,
and supporting long-term loans for actual end-users of affordable new pre-sales,
we can suppress the rise of existing housing prices
while shifting demand toward new supply.
This significantly reduces the need to
regulate holding taxes on existing homes too tightly.
Government officials
and
Kim Min-seok from Minty have made similar remarks.
Massive supply, as if they are desperate to build houses.
Abundant financial support for single-home owners.
The President has already prepared measures
so that the government can purchase properties on behalf of
those who may be exposed to risks such as auctions.
A:
If existing mortgage loans are tightened,
and long-term loans are supported for actual end-users of affordable new pre-sales,
housing demand will shift very strongly
from existing apartments to new pre-sales.
This is a very powerful policy that promotes new supply
while suppressing existing housing prices,
but if the scope of loan regulations is set too aggressively,
it could trigger auctions and a market crash.
B.
1.
If only existing mortgage loans are tightened
and normal refinancing for existing borrowers is guaranteed,
transactions will plummet, and auctions will show a moderate
increase,
and rather than a crash,
a gradual price normalization over 5 years will occur.
2.
Conversely, if existing loans are also recalled,
fire sales and auctions will increase significantly,
which could turn into
a market crash when an economic recession hits.
This is because it is not that the total volume of loans decreases,
but rather that existing home loans
shift to new pre-sale loans.
Therefore, method number 2 will likely be unusable.
If even the maturity extensions for existing borrowers are blocked,
instead of gradual stability,
a shock-driven decline through fire sales and auctions will occur.
The core of the policy
is not to bankrupt existing homeowners,
but to shift the upcoming
buying demand toward new housing
to stabilize housing prices.
3.
In the case where only new mortgage loans for existing homes are strengthened
(provided that maturity extensions are allowed.
Simulations showed that if maturity extensions are not possible,
South Korea becomes hell)
The transaction volume of existing apartments will decrease significantly.
Homeowners will initially hold onto their asking prices,
but prices will inevitably drop starting from fire sales that must be sold.
Subscription demand will flock to
affordable new pre-sales with good loan availability.
Construction companies will secure funds through pre-sale proceeds,
reducing PF (Project Financing) risks and stimulating housing construction.
If supply continues every year, existing housing prices are more likely to undergo
long-term stagnation or a gradual decline rather than a crash.
This is a relatively safe method.
I believe the government's housing price stabilization policy
will follow this model.
4.
The President has already prepared measures
so that the government can purchase properties on behalf of
those who may be exposed to risks such as auctions.
This is a policy to minimize damage to those citizens.
Note:
I have conducted 1,000,000 simulations
based on the above content.