The National Pension Service is doomed if this is true ㅠㅠ
Repost.....
When you think about it, the current KOSPI crash has a fundamental problem that is 100 times more serious than retail investors' accounts melting away.
According to the original principles of the National Pension Service (NPS), they should have mechanically sold off Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in installments (rebalancing to take profits) at the peak during the KOSPI bull market in the first half of the year and moved into other assets according to market conditions.
However, in an attempt to boost the stock market, the government drastically increased the target weight of domestic stocks from 14.9% to 20.8% and blocked selling.
The butterfly effect caused by this policy blunder is truly horrific.
1. It allowed foreign investors to perfectly "dump their bags" and exit.
As the weight increased, pension funds became concentrated in the top two market cap companies, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Combined with corporate share buybacks, this created a solid floor of buying support. From the perspective of foreign investors, they thought, "What a windfall," and safely realized all their profits at historical highs, converted them to dollars, and exited smoothly.
2. The NPS 'Liquidity Trap' (A checkmate where they can't even sell)
After foreign investors exited, the semiconductor peak-out and market crash hit, causing returns to plummet from the peak. However, even if the NPS wants to cut their losses now, they absolutely cannot sell. The moment the NPS dumps its holdings, the KOSPI would hit a circuit breaker and the market itself would collapse, so they have no choice but to sit there helplessly stuck with the assets.
Even in the current state, 240 trillion KRW of the National Pension has already evaporated. If this semiconductor downturn and foreign capital flight continue, leading to a structural downward trend in the KOSPI, up to 400–500 trillion KRW could vanish into thin air.
If that happens, the projected depletion date of the National Pension will be pulled forward by as much as 8 to 10 years, from [2055] to [2045–2047].
What this actually means is:
1. Those born in the 90s will see the pension disappear before they even retire.
When someone born in 1990 reaches the year 2046, when the fund is depleted, they will be only 56 years old. There are still 9 years left until the legal pension eligibility age (65), but the pension vault I am supposed to draw from in my old age will be empty.
2. Those born in the 2000s will spend their whole lives just supporting the elderly.
For someone born in 2000, the fund balance will hit zero when they are in their 40s, their prime working years. Since there are no reserves, the system will be forced to transition to a 'pay-as-you-go' model, where funds collected in a given year are paid out to the elderly that same year. In this scenario, more than 25–35% of one's salary would have to be taken solely for pension premiums.
Ultimately, this means those born in the 90s and 2000s will become the "worst victims of a Ponzi scheme in history"—people who had hundreds of thousands of won forcibly taken from their salaries every month to take full responsibility for the retirement of older generations, only to find the coffers empty long before they reach the age to receive anything.
The 2030 generation is now set to pay the price for this policy failure—blocking pension rebalancing in an attempt to prop up the stock market and getting stuck at the peak—with a lifetime of blood, sweat, and the deprivation of their retirement.
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