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Everyone is overlooking the demand side far too much

Machine translated


Today, after I mentioned the possibility of a short-term real estate correction following the interest rate hike,
I was mocked and criticized relentlessly, being treated like a "Season 2 Lee Go-sang" (a controversial figure).
However, while everyone is shouting about supply shortages, they are overlooking the signals of a collapse on the demand side.
No matter how much supply is lacking, if demand collapses, a correction is inevitable.
Did a major correction happen in 2022 because of an oversupply?
The core issue was that buying sentiment froze due to the high-interest rate shock, causing effective demand to evaporate.
If high interest rates persist, combined with shocks from tax reforms and a decrease in disposable income due to an economic recession, demand will shrink.
Of course, it is true that borrowers' resilience is better now than in 2022 due to tighter loan restrictions and strict DSR regulations.
However, a real estate downturn is not determined by the 99% who hold on, but by the 1% who sell.
Market prices are driven by the minority of sellers who are pushed to the limit and have no choice but to dump their properties.
The fact that the number of real estate auctions in Seoul is recently hitting all-time highs is proof of this.
Furthermore, an extreme K-shaped polarization is currently underway,
and if the semiconductor industry falters even slightly, there are concerns about a macroeconomic recession as early as next year.
Historically and globally, has there ever been a case where real estate skyrocketed alone while household income dropped due to a recession?
I am not denying the long-term upward trend of real estate itself.
However, the macroeconomic pressures that will suppress future demand seem very clear.
To ignore even the possibility of a short-term correction, shout blindly that prices will only go up, and mock even reasonable doubt—honestly, that is just irrational hate.

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