It is pointless to oppose the US government
Matters regarding fiscal policy or Treasury yields do not carry that much significance.
There may be some noise, but in the grand scheme of things, it means the overall direction will not change.
The fact that the US achieved a budget surplus did not cause the Nasdaq or Dow to trend upward.
In fact, they dropped significantly; that was the IT bubble era.
Historically, US budget deficits and upward-trending stock markets have always gone hand in hand.
Bessent was the one who criticized the "taper tantrum" when Alan Greenspan was Fed Chair,
but it turns out that judgment was correct at the time.
Since the Fed cannot engage in QE, from Bessent's perspective, they are performing a form of "quasi-QE" as a method to control Treasury yields.
The conclusion is that, during transition periods, high Treasury yields have always eventually been overcome by growth.
What did the US eventually do during the IT bubble when the internet was being deployed?
There were many internet companies, but ultimately, the US secured global hegemony through investment and growth.
That is how the US became number one in the 2020s.
So, in this AI era, even if Treasury yields are high or they cannot perform QE, it makes no sense for the US to simply stop in order to secure the next 20 years or maintain hegemony.
I believe that if we assume China has already taken the lead in physical robotics, and if the US loses the technology to embed AI into these physical robots, the US will cease to exist, because AI is the brain.
In conclusion, if the US's AI hegemony is compromised, the US Big Tech companies that have received all that investment will face a path to hell (starting with all sorts of corporate bonds).
There is only one exogenous variable: war or quasi-war.
Ultimately, I believe Trump will end the Russia-Ukraine war, meet with Kim Jong-un, and finally reach an agreement with Iran to boost the stock market.
If you disagree, you are right.
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