Memory Semiconductor Grim Reaper Shawn Kim VS Lee Ju-wan

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According to the financial investment industry on the 10th, Morgan Stanley lowered its target price for SK hynix by 38%, from the previous 2.6 million won to 1.6 million won, in its report titled 'Memory Semiconductors - Key Issues After the US Midterm Elections' released the previous day.
The target price for Samsung Electronics was also lowered by 19%, from 381,000 won to 309,000 won, and the target price for Samsung Electronics preferred stock was lowered from 304,800 won to 247,200 won.
Shawn Kim, the Morgan Stanley analyst who authored this report, has earned the nickname 'Semiconductor Grim Reaper' in Korea for releasing a series of reports warning of deteriorating semiconductor market conditions in the past.
He previously warned of a downturn in the semiconductor industry in an August 2021 report titled 'Memory, Winter is Coming.' In September 2024, he drew market attention by raising the possibility of an oversupply in memory semiconductors through a report titled 'Winter is Approaching,' lowering the target prices for SK hynix and Samsung Electronics by 54% and 28%, respectively.
Consequently, Morgan Stanley lowered its HBM operating profit margin forecast for SK hynix for 2027–2028 from the previous 78–80% to approximately 70%, and also lowered Samsung Electronics' HBM operating profit margin forecast from approximately 80% to 65–72%.
However, they maintained a positive outlook regarding short-term performance.
Morgan Stanley presented Samsung Electronics' operating profit forecast for next year at approximately 688 trillion won, which is 9% higher than the previous estimate. They also adjusted SK hynix's operating profit forecast for next year upward by 13% to approximately 468 trillion won.
The 2028 operating profit forecasts were also raised by 10% for Samsung Electronics and 1% for SK hynix.
The reason for lowering the target prices despite this is the expectation that memory semiconductor profit margins will return to historical average levels after 2029.
Accordingly, Morgan Stanley lowered its overall operating profit margin forecast for SK hynix for 2029–2035 from the previous average of 53% to 28%.
Morgan Stanley explained, "Stock prices move ahead of a company's fundamentals, and they are pricing in the risk that earnings forecasts will decline as supply catches up with demand and the pace of AI infrastructure construction slows over the next few years."
It's not like he's the only semiconductor analyst at Morgan Stanley; he covers East Asia,
and since his views sometimes clash with those covering North America, it should be seen as an individual opinion.
While his short view in 2021 was correct, his short view in September 2024 was significantly off.
Whether it's a long view or a short view, one must provide the basis for the prediction, and in Shawn Kim's opinion regarding increased supply,
it seems he did not sufficiently reflect the capacity control strategies of Samsung and Hynix.
Except for that point, his predictions follow a logical progression.
However, Lee Ju-wan lacks that kind of [reputation/track record], which is why people ignore his opinions,
yet there are those who believe in Lee Ju-wan's views blindly.