Real estate policy is a game of market trends and psychology

Right now, the trends, the psychology,
and even the political factors
are all clashing with the current administration's real estate policies.
1. Market Trends
In a situation where there is a supply cliff for the next 3 to 5 years,
it seems highly likely that sellers will choose to hold out
rather than putting their properties on the market immediately.
2. Psychological Game
As shown in previous studies,
the reason it is difficult to control real estate through taxation
is largely because the public doubts the continuity
of policies they do not want.
For real estate price control through tax revenue to work,
the policy must be able to move market supply and demand as a result.
If there is underlying doubt regarding the continuity of that policy,
the impact on market supply and demand
will be extremely limited.
Even so, the policy is more likely to work
only in a market where demand outweighs supply.
But in the current supply cliff situation,
if sellers hold out,
the sharp decrease in Jeonse (lump-sum deposit lease) listings
will inevitably lead to higher negative evaluations of the policy.
This, in turn,
could affect the possibility of a change in administration,
further increasing doubts about policy continuity,
which could lead to a vicious cycle
where they suffer a complete defeat in the psychological game.
I wonder how this administration's policies will turn out???
It doesn't look like it will be easy.