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The interest rate hike trend is going exactly as I predicted

Machine translated

This is a post I wrote earlier this year.......
‌2011
- Interest rate hike 2% -> 3.25%
- Strong exports due to China boom: "Cha-Hwa-Jeong" stocks, stock market boom
- Seoul Jeonse (lump-sum deposit lease) shortage
2011 was a year when the worst Jeonse shortage in history occurred nationwide due to the aftermath of the global financial crisis and the stagnation of the housing sales market. As the shortage of Jeonse intensified, Seoul apartment Jeonse prices recorded an annual double-digit growth rate (approx. 12.96%), and in some popular areas, Jeonse prices skyrocketed 2 to 3 times within just two years.
* At that time, the Jeonse shortage stabilized back to normal after about six months.
2026
- Strong AI exports (USA), stock market super-boom
- Seoul metropolitan area Jeonse shortage
- Interest rate hikes
* We were facing a dilemma where we couldn't raise interest rates despite rising inflation due to slowing economic growth (stagflation risk),
but because the economic growth outlook is looking good thanks to the AI semiconductor boom, they are raising interest rates without hesitation.
Back in 2011, interest rate hikes were possible because economic growth was strong due to robust exports to China.
Back then, interest rate hikes caused real estate sales prices to crash, creating a mass of "house poor" individuals; I wonder how it will be this time?
The Jeonse shortage also stabilized rapidly downward after about six months.
This is an interesting point. We will have to wait and see how it unfolds.

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