A Fragile Market Shaken by News Without Any Positive Catalysts
Today's Nasdaq rebound wasn't due to any specific positive news, but rather because many stocks appeared cheap after a significant short-term drop.
As bargain hunters stepped in,
the market rose by leaning on comments from Goldman and Morgan stating that the correction might be nearing its end or that stocks could rise after earnings reports.
However, it wobbled due to "dirty water" being thrown by those Iranian troublemakers, and news that "China" is pushing for AI chip development to reduce dependence on the US—news that will likely prove to be nothing once time passes.
The market is swaying back and forth, gradually giving back its gains.
To that extent, the current market is terrified and intimidated by the uncertain aftermath of the midterm elections, the endless clashes between Trump and Iran, and the future direction of oil prices and inflation.
The Fear Index entered the middle of the "Extreme Fear" zone yesterday; we thought it might barely escape today, but it is trending back into the Extreme Fear zone.
On top of this, France has entered the fray.
French 10-year government bond yields have surged 40%, from 3.6% to 5% in just three months.
Since France holds a significant weight in the Eurozone, there are fears that France might repeat the PIGS crisis in the global financial market, making things even more precarious.
While it may not reach the catastrophe of a French default,
it is expected to become a headache that periodically disrupts the stock market by causing liquidity spasms and high interest rates above 5%.
We need to confirm the direction of the US market following the midterm election results, whether negotiations with Iran will succeed or fail, what on earth Trump is thinking, and whether France will face a sudden crisis.
The market will provide hints regarding its direction after the CPI announcement on November 10th; until then, one should avoid aggressive betting, going "all-in," or heavy bargain hunting.
I recommend staying on the sidelines and only trading by moving small "scout" positions within 20-30% of your total investment capital.
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