Why you shouldn't sell Hynix just because you've broken even
With the recent rebound, the market cap is around 900 trillion KRW.
The average profit estimate from securities firms for next year seems to be around 400 trillion KRW.
Since they promised to return more than 50% of FCF to shareholders,
I estimate the expected share buybacks and cancellations will be around 150–200 trillion KRW.
Out of a 900 trillion KRW market cap, related party stakes account for about 30%, which is -270 trillion KRW.
That leaves 630 trillion KRW...
If we calculate half of that as long-term investment volume, that's another -300 trillion KRW.
Then the floatable supply is only about 330 trillion KRW.
But if they execute share buybacks of over 150 trillion KRW, what do you think will happen?
For reference, they stated in the last conference call that they are essentially sold out through 2029.
The longer the stock price stays flat or resists rising, the more the circulating supply in the market shrinks.
People said the AI bubble would burst and the stock price was slashed to a third—down about 64%....
I thought the crash in October/November wouldn't happen and that it would pivot upward, but I was clearly wrong.
Still, I believe that at some point, it will spring back like a coiled spring.
And once the price surges, new news and logic will be created to match it,
it will heat up, and I believe it will break through the previous high of 300,000...
So, don't sell just because you've reached your break-even point; I think it wouldn't be a bad idea to grit your teeth and hold on.
Of course, all investments are 100% your own responsibility.
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